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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."