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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk and A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.